Market Skepticism Clouds Zijin Gold’s C$5.5B Acquisition of Allied Gold

Key Facts

1Zijin Gold is acquiring Allied Gold in a C$5.5B all-cash deal at C$44 per share.

2The deal awaits final NDRC approval from China amid heightened security risks in Mali.

3The market currently prices in only a 5% probability of deal completion, with standalone value estimated at ~$20/share.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions affecting the global mining sector, Zijin Gold's proposed acquisition of Allied Gold faces significant skepticism regarding its closure. The deal is structured as an all-cash transaction valued at C$5.5 billion, offering C$44 per share. However, market reports indicate that investors are currently pricing in only a 5% probability of completion, with the target's standalone value estimated at approximately $20 per share.

The primary hurdles involve pending final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) against a backdrop of softening gold prices and heightened security risks in Mali following a recent abduction incident. Per market data, Zijin Gold (2259.HK) shares stood at HKD 115 at the close of July 24, 2026, reflecting investor caution regarding the company's strategic expansion into high-risk jurisdictions.

Traders should monitor official statements from Chinese regulators as the primary catalyst for near-term price action. According to recent economic data, Canada's inflation rate slowed to 2.8% as of July 20, 2026, which may influence broader valuation sentiment in the Canadian market where the target is based. For 2259.HK, the July 24 low of HKD 112 serves as a relevant technical support level to watch.