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Sign InAmid escalating geopolitical risks threatening global energy corridors, Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could surge past $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. According to reports, Persian Gulf oil flows have already dropped below 45% of pre-war levels as regional military escalation enters its tenth day. Furthermore, data shows Saudi-laden tankers reversing course in the Red Sea following threats from Houthi forces, intensifying concerns over supply security.
These warnings come at a critical juncture for the energy market, as historical estimates suggest that any prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes—typically triggers price spikes far exceeding standard risk premiums. Compared to previous crises, such as the 2019 attacks on Aramco facilities which spiked prices by 15% in a single day per market data, the current threat appears more structural. Energy experts note that diverting shipments away from the Suez Canal adds significant freight costs, contributing to global inflationary pressures.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on the EIA Weekly Petroleum Report scheduled for July 15, 2026, which may provide insights into how global stockpiles are reacting to Middle Eastern supply constraints. With current price levels unavailable for citation, the outlook remains tethered to maritime developments in the Red Sea. Market participants will also monitor upcoming Fed speeches for commentary on how rising energy costs might influence the trajectory of US interest rates.