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Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 19 July 2026•Updated 19 July 2026•
1 min read

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge PCE Faces Potential Downward Revision

PCE gauge in front of the Federal Reserve building and US flag, with a document stamped 'Revised Down' below.

Key Facts

1Expectations are set for a downward revision of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.

In a move that could reshape the trajectory of US monetary policy, markets are anticipating a potential downward revision to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. According to reports, this expected revision may reflect a faster-than-anticipated cooling of price pressures. These expectations emerge as the central bank seeks to ensure the accuracy of economic data before its upcoming interest rate decisions.

These forecasts coincide with recent US inflation data showing a significant slowdown, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 3.5% in June 2026, below the 3.8% forecast per market data. Additionally, the Super Core CPI MoM recorded a contraction of -0.0046%, reinforcing the narrative of receding structural inflationary pressures. Analysts are closely monitoring these revisions to gauge how close inflation is trending toward the Fed's 2% target.

Looking ahead, markets are focused on a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials for further policy clues, including scheduled remarks from Governors Bowman and Waller in July 2026.