ASML Forecasts China Revenue Share to Drop to 20% by 2026 Amid Export Curbs

Key Facts

As geopolitical tensions reshape the global semiconductor landscape, equipment manufacturers are facing increasing challenges in balancing major markets with regulatory constraints. ASML's CFO stated that China will contribute around 20% of the company's total revenue throughout 2026. This figure represents a significant drop from previous years, which the executive directly attributed to the increasing trade restrictions imposed by the US on the export of advanced chipmaking hardware.

This decline comes as peers in the sector face similar pressures; previous reports from Applied Materials (AMAT) indicated supply chain impacts from the same curbs, while Lam Research has noted volatility in Chinese market orders. Per market data, this shift reflects the industry's response to Washington's policies aimed at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing capabilities, prompting ASML to diversify its customer base in regions such as the US and Europe.

Regarding market performance, ASML shares stood at $1,784.87 (close July 16, 2026), with a daily range between $1,779.12 and $1,853.45. Investors are closely monitoring further trade policy updates, especially with the upcoming US Monetary Policy Report, which could impact the valuations of mega-cap tech firms and the cost of financing capital expansions in markets alternative to China.