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CryptoMediumUpdated•Originally published 14 July 2026•Updated 15 July 2026•
1 min read

Polymarket Odds for Bitcoin Over $52K Hit 99% as US Inflation Cools

Key Facts

1Polymarket priced a 99.95% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $52,000 by July 16.
2Bitcoin neared $65,000 on July 14 following a 0.4% drop in the June US CPI.

Reflecting a significant surge in investor confidence toward risk assets, the prediction platform Polymarket has priced a 99.95% probability of Bitcoin exceeding the $52,000 level by July 16. The leading cryptocurrency rose by 3.6% to reach $64,800, bolstered by economic data showing headline inflation at 3.5% and core inflation at 2.6% for the month of June.

This bullish momentum arrives as markets anticipate a shift in monetary policy, with cooling inflation raising hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Historically, a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a catalyst for digital assets; earlier in 2024, Bitcoin exhibited similar upward trajectories following inflation misses, according to market analysis reports.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin faces technical resistance in the $65,000 to $66,000 range which may cap immediate gains. With the price currently at $64,800, traders should focus on the upcoming FOMC Minutes, which will provide critical insights into the future interest rate path and its subsequent impact on crypto market liquidity.