JPMorgan Cuts Coinbase and Circle Forecasts as Hyperliquid Pressure Mounts

Key Facts

In a move reflecting heightened risks to profit margins within the digital asset sector, JPMorgan has officially lowered its earnings forecasts for both Coinbase and Circle. This downgrade follows the bank's identification of significant pressures stemming from the Hyperliquid partnership, which is expected to dilute the companies' share of interest income from USDC reserves. According to reports, this shift places the existing revenue model under structural strain, potentially impacting the long-term financial sustainability of traditional exchanges.

This downward revision arrives as Coinbase increasingly leans on reserve-based yields to secure stable cash flows amidst volatile trading volumes. Looking at peers, market data shows that companies like Robinhood (HOOD) are aggressively expanding their stablecoin presence, further squeezing net interest margins per market data. Analysts suggest that a formal forecast cut from an institution like JPMorgan reinforces broader concerns regarding the ability of stablecoin issuers to maintain historical profitability levels.

Regarding market performance, COIN stood at $159.07 (at close July 10, 2026), with investors now weighing the impact of the lowered guidance on the stock's near-term trajectory. Market participants remain focused on the economic calendar, specifically the upcoming speech by Fed official Logan, which could provide clarity on the interest rate path—a critical driver for the yields Coinbase generates from its USDC holdings.