EL7.AI
Central BanksUpdated×2•Originally published 13 July 2026•Updated 13 July 2026•
2 min read

Markets Await Fed Speeches and Inflation Data Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Key Facts

1Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook, which may contain policy signals.
2Markets are focusing this week on the US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony.
3Market focus is shifting toward the renewed escalation in US-Iran tensions.

Traders are closely monitoring a series of high-profile central bank communications this week, led by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, whose upcoming speech on the economic outlook is expected to provide critical policy signals. This focus coincides with heightened anticipation for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony before Congress. Furthermore, market sentiment is being shaped by a renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which has introduced a layer of macro uncertainty into global trading strategies.

These developments follow mixed economic signals from major economies. According to market data from July 6, 2026, the US ISM Services PMI held steady at 54, meeting expectations, while the ISM Services Prices component cooled to 67.7 from a previous 71.3. This deceleration in service-sector costs provides a backdrop for the Fed's upcoming deliberations. In a global context, recent data shows inflation in emerging markets like the Philippines slowing to 6.4%, highlighting the diverse inflationary environment central banks must navigate as they prepare for this week's key releases.

Looking ahead, the market will focus on Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s speech scheduled for July 7, 2026, for further clarity on the domestic interest rate path. Additionally, the RBNZ interest rate decision on July 8, 2026, where rates are forecasted to remain at 2.5%, will be a primary catalyst for currency volatility.

Latest Updates · 1

  1. Notable·

    Update: A notable divergence has emerged between rising US rate hike discounts and cooling inflation expectations, potentially allowing Chair Warsh to shift the market narrative during his testimony. While European markets maintain a hawkish outlook, the priced-in probability of an immediate rate hike in July remains minimal according to current market pricing.