Bank of France Upgrades Q2 GDP Forecast Following June Recovery

Key Facts

In a move reflecting the resilience of the Eurozone's second-largest economy, the Bank of France has upgraded its GDP growth projections for the second quarter of 2026. This upward revision follows tangible signs of recovery in economic activity during June, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the industrial and service sectors. According to reports, this improvement suggests that business activity remained resilient despite the broader political and budgetary risks that have recently dominated the landscape.

This French optimism comes amid mixed performance across the European continent; French trade balance data showed a deficit of 6.9 billion euros (per market data on July 7, 2026), which was wider than the forecasted 5.2 billion euros. In contrast, Germany, the region's largest economy, reported industrial production growth of 0.9% in May, exceeding the 0.2% forecast, reinforcing the narrative of a gradual recovery in manufacturing activity at the heart of Europe.

From a macro perspective, markets are awaiting a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled for later today (per the economic calendar on July 6, 2026), which may provide further clues on Eurozone monetary policy directions in response to growth and inflation pressures.