US Treasury Unlikely to Label Trading Partners as Currency Manipulators in 2025 Report

Key Facts

The upcoming US Treasury FX report for 2025 is unlikely to label any major trading partner as a currency manipulator, according to analysis from ING. This outlook stems from the observation that no trading partner has breached all three of the Treasury's specific criteria, even amidst a broader depreciation of the US Dollar. Furthermore, reports suggest the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may be exercising increased caution regarding currency interventions to remain within the Treasury's established thresholds.

Historically, the Treasury evaluates partners based on a significant bilateral trade surplus with the US, a material current account surplus, and persistent one-sided intervention in foreign exchange markets. Looking at peer context, countries like Vietnam and Switzerland have frequently appeared on monitoring lists; in the mid-2024 report, while no nation was labeled a manipulator, China, Germany, and Japan remained under scrutiny per historical market data. The expected absence of manipulation labels suggests a period of relative calm regarding exchange-rate-related trade frictions.

Traders should monitor Swiss economic indicators, such as the Inflation Rate which stood at 0.5% as of July 2, 2026, as these figures influence the SNB's intervention capacity. Additionally, recent trade data, including Australia's Balance of Trade reaching -3.018 billion on July 2, 2026, highlights the ongoing shifts in global trade balances that the US Treasury tracks to finalize its assessment of international currency practices.