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Sign InAmid shifting expectations for Eurozone monetary policy, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel cautioned that falling oil prices do not signal a return to pre-war inflation levels. According to reports, Schnabel emphasized that the fight against inflation is not yet won, noting that underlying price pressures remain elevated despite the recent relief provided by declining global energy costs.
These remarks coincide with mixed inflationary signals across the continent. Per market data, France's annual inflation rate cooled to 1.8% in June 2026, while Germany reported a drop to 2.3% as of June 30. However, the ECB remains wary of core price stability, especially as Italian inflation held at 3% during the same period, supporting Schnabel's view that energy-driven declines may mask persistent domestic price trends.
Looking ahead, investors are focusing on upcoming economic catalysts that could influence the ECB's trajectory, including manufacturing PMI data. While current instrument price levels are unavailable at this time, the hawkish tone from central bank officials suggests that interest rates may remain restrictive for longer to ensure a sustainable return to the 2% target, particularly as trade balances in the region remain volatile.