EL7.AI
StocksMediumUpdated•Originally published 1 July 2026•Updated 1 July 2026•
1 min read

Exxon Mobil Upgraded to Buy on Oil Inventory Squeeze and Expected SPR Refill

Man in a suit surrounded by oil pipes, gauges, an Exxon Mobil certificate, and an oil barrel on an orange background.

Key Facts

1Exxon Mobil was upgraded to Buy as US and global oil inventories hit multi-decade lows
2The US strategic petroleum reserve dropped below the bottom level seen during the COVID pandemic
3Refilling of the strategic petroleum reserve is expected to start in 1-2 years, catalyzing an oil price rebound

Against a backdrop of tightening oil supply, a Seeking Alpha analyst upgraded Exxon Mobil (XOM) to Buy, citing US and global oil inventories that have fallen to multi-decade lows. The report noted that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped below the trough seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, setting the stage for a gradual oil price recovery. Refilling of the SPR is expected to begin within one to two years, providing an additional catalyst for higher crude prices.

The upgrade comes as market data shows XOM closed at $136.35 on July 1, 2026, while peers such as Chevron (CVX) at $165.76, Shell (SHEL) at $77.54, and BP at $36.95 (per market data as of June 30). The move aligns with a broader inventory drawdown, with OECD stocks falling to their lowest since 2014, according to analyst estimates.

Investors are watching support and resistance levels, with XOM trading between $135.65 and $137.49 in the latest session—further upside may test the high if weekly oil inventory data confirm the tightness narrative. Ahead, the market awaits EIA crude stock reports, which could reinforce the supply squeeze thesis. Medium-term catalysts remain OPEC+ policy decisions and the timing of the SPR refill commencement.