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CommoditiesMediumUpdated•Originally published 30 June 2026•Updated 30 June 2026•
1 min read

Morgan Stanley Cuts Oil Price Forecast as Strait of Hormuz Reopens Faster Than Expected

Illustration of a Brent crude oil barrel, a Morgan Stanley research paper, and a gauge on an orange map background.

Key Facts

1Morgan Stanley analysts cut their oil price forecast for this year and next, citing a faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

With global oil supply disruption risks easing, Morgan Stanley lowered its crude price forecast for this year and next. According to reports, the downgrade reflects the faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil shipments, which reduces the geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most vital oil transit routes, handling about 20% of global supply. Its swift reopening is expected to restore a significant portion of lost export capacity as political and operational hurdles are cleared. This comes amid growing concerns over slowing demand, further tilting the price outlook to the downside.

Looking ahead, markets are watching weekly US inventory data and any signals from the OPEC+ alliance on output adjustments. Central bank meetings and their implications for demand will also be in focus. If supply flows continue to improve, crude prices may face sustained bearish pressure in the near term.