Hormuz Tanker Traffic Shows Slight Recovery but Remains 90% Below Normal

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East easing slightly, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz posted a modest recovery over the past 24 hours, the first increase since two attacks on commercial vessels last week. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, 24 commodity vessels — including crude tankers, LNG/LPG carriers and bulk carriers — transited the strait on Monday. However, total traffic remains 90% lower than normal levels, per reports, suggesting a full recovery is still distant.

This fragile rebound comes as the crude oil market weighs supply risks from the key waterway. WTI crude futures (CL) closed at $92.40/barrel on June 29, with investors focused on navigation developments at Hormuz. US crude stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected draw of 6.088 million barrels in the week ending June 24, per the EIA report, adding price support despite geopolitical concerns.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor whether the improvement in tanker traffic sustains in the coming days, as any renewed escalation could revive supply disruption fears. With traffic still severely depressed, a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in prices, especially with the summer demand peak approaching. The $91.00–$92.60 range (June 29 low/high) is currently viewed as a near-term technical band for CL.