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GeopoliticsMedium•29 June 2026•

2 min read

Ships still avoiding Strait of Hormuz despite Iran peace talks

Key Facts

1Nikos Petrakakos, Managing Director of Investments at Tufton, stated that most ships currently crossing the Strait of Hormuz are those stranded since the Iran war outbreak, while other ships remain reluctant due to uncertainty over the fragile U.S.-Iran interim peace deal.

2The report indicated that traffic in the strait is unlikely to return near pre-war levels until there is greater clarity on a lasting deal.

Despite the hype around U.S.-Iran peace talks, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely avoided by commercial shipping. Nikos Petrakakos, Managing Director of Investments at Tufton, stated that most ships currently crossing the strait are those stranded since the outbreak of the Iran war, while other vessels remain reluctant due to uncertainty over the fragile interim peace deal. The report warned that traffic is unlikely to return to pre-war levels without a lasting and clear agreement.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply. Recent U.S. data showed smaller-than-expected crude stock draws: the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decline of 0.765 million barrels for the week ending June 19, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a larger drop of 6.088 million barrels on June 24, per market data. The shipping avoidance adds a geopolitical risk premium to oil, though its impact has been muted amid demand concerns.

Key catalysts include any official statements from U.S. or Iranian officials and the next round of talks. On the economic calendar, upcoming U.S. housing data and Federal Reserve testimonies could shift risk sentiment. Oil prices remain sensitive to supply disruptions, and any escalation could trigger a sharp spike. As of now, no major Iran-related events are scheduled for the coming week.