Kalshi traders bet on weaker June jobs data, defying Wall Street consensus

Key Facts

1Kalshi traders see less than 60% chance that job growth in June will surpass 100,000.

2Dow Jones consensus expects a sharp drop in job growth from May's 172,000 to June.

Amid growing signs of an economic slowdown, attention is turning to the June jobs report, which may disappoint markets. Kalshi prediction market traders see less than a 60% chance that job growth exceeds 100,000, according to a CNBC report. The Dow Jones consensus also expects a sharp drop from May's 172,000 jobs added.

This follows a string of mixed economic data showing a slowdown in the U.S. services sector. According to market data, the Services PMI stood at 51.3 in June, below prior readings, indicating only marginal expansion. The Composite PMI came in at 52.2, reflecting some resilience but notable deceleration.

The official June payrolls report is due on July 2 and will be pivotal for the monetary policy path. If the Kalshi expectations of sub-100,000 jobs materialize, it could reinforce rate-cut bets for later this year. Investors are also watching weekly jobless claims and wage data for additional signals.