Galaxy Research cuts CLARITY Act 2026 passage odds to 50%

Key Facts

1Galaxy Research cut its 2026 CLARITY Act passage odds to 50%, citing Senate calendar constraints before the August recess.

2Galaxy's Alex Thorn said Senate calendar constraints and lack of progress in negotiations make passage less likely than several weeks ago.

As anticipation builds for US crypto regulation, Galaxy Research has cut its odds for the passage of the 2026 CLARITY Act to 50%, according to media reports. The firm attributed the reduction to limited remaining Senate floor time before the August recess and a lack of progress in negotiations. Galaxy's Alex Thorn noted that these factors make passage less likely than it was several weeks ago.

The CLARITY Act is expected to bring regulatory clarity to the US crypto market, providing a clear legal framework for firms and investors. Some analysts view the lowered odds as a setback for market sentiment amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty. However, with odds still at 50%, the chance of passage remains alive. Major crypto prices have not shown significant reactions so far, per market data.

Traders are now focused on the Senate schedule after the August recess, where negotiations could either advance or stall further. Any new statements from lawmakers or regulators could also shift expectations. With no immediate catalysts from major economic data directly tied to crypto, market attention remains on the bill's progress.