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Macro Economy•26 June 2026•

1 min read

Italian confidence data sends mixed signals in June, pointing to Q2 GDP slowdown

Key Facts

1Italian confidence data mostly collected before the US-Iran deal signing points to consumer vulnerability and mixed business improvements, with a clear GDP slowdown in Q2 likely.

In a sign of diverging economic performance, Italian confidence data for June showed a slight improvement in business sentiment but a deterioration in consumer sentiment, pointing to a likely slowdown in Q2 GDP growth. According to a report by ING, the data—mostly collected before the US-Iran deal signing—reveals consumer vulnerability and mixed business improvements, with a clear risk of slower expansion.

These mixed signals come as the Eurozone faces similar headwinds: EU consumer confidence published on June 22 improved marginally to -17.7 from -19, yet remains deeply negative. In the Netherlands, consumer confidence rose from -46 to -39, while Turkey saw an increase to 87.9. The divergence between Italy's consumer and business sectors highlights the fragility of the recovery and persistent household pressure.

Investors will watch upcoming catalysts, including ECB President Lagarde’s speech on June 22 for any forward guidance on monetary policy in light of the data. Attention will also turn to Italy's Q2 GDP release to confirm the slowdown, against a backdrop of lingering geopolitical uncertainty and elevated inflation.