ECB survey: Inflation expectations drop to 3.5%, growth outlook improves slightly

Key Facts

As major central banks lean toward policy easing, the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey for May 2026 showed a sharp decline in short-term inflation expectations among Eurozone consumers. According to the survey, median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in April, while expected economic growth improved to -1.7% from -2.2%. The figures suggest easing price concerns, though weak growth, rising unemployment, and tighter credit conditions remain headwinds.

The survey data comes amid signs of a softening services sector in the Eurozone: the Services PMI stood at 48.9 in June (per market data), indicating a mild contraction. Meanwhile, Eurozone consumer confidence edged up to -17.7 from -19 the prior month, still at depressed levels. Consumers see modest improvement in the outlook but remain cautious given persistent credit tightening and sluggish demand.

With inflation expectations declining, pressure on the ECB to keep hiking rates is reduced, potentially supporting regional financial markets. Investors now turn to the ECB's July meeting for clues on the policy path. Any further improvement in growth expectations could boost risk appetite, but with key indicators still below expansion territory, the outlook remains cautious.