ING cuts gold forecast to $4,300 in Q3 after sharp correction

Key Facts

1ING Economics lowered its gold price forecasts, now expecting an average of $4,300 per ounce in Q3 and $4,600 in Q4 2026.

2Commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said the downgrade reflects near-term headwinds but long-term structural drivers remain intact.

After a sharp correction in 2026, ING Economics has lowered its gold price forecasts, citing near-term headwinds. According to media reports, the bank now expects an average price of $4,300 per ounce in Q3 and $4,600 in Q4 2026, down from previous estimates. The downgrade follows gold's failure to sustain early-year gains, prompting analysts to reassess the near-term outlook.

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey attributed the revision to higher real yields, a stronger US dollar, and weaker investor demand in the short term. However, she stressed that long-term structural drivers—including central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions—remain intact. The downgrade comes during a volatile period for gold, with the metal trading below $4,000 per ounce as of June 25, 2026, according to market data.

Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation data and major central bank decisions, particularly from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to gauge gold's trajectory in H2. Any shift in central bank rate stance will be pivotal for the metal's direction. While the structural outlook remains optimistic, near-term pressure could persist before a clearer recovery path emerges.