China State Refiners Eye Resuming Iranian Oil Imports Amid Supply Glut

Key Facts

Amid a global oil supply glut driven by easing US shale restrictions and rising Russian output, China's state-owned refiners are reportedly considering resuming purchases of Iranian oil. However, competing alternative supplies—particularly discounted Russian crude—and falling domestic fuel demand are expected to temper their enthusiasm, limiting the impact on global markets.

The potential resumption comes as oil prices remain under pressure, with Brent crude futures trading around $80 per barrel as of June 24, 2026, according to market data, weighed by weak Chinese demand and rising non-OPEC+ production. The return of Iranian oil would add to supply pressures, though the effect is likely muted given the current ample supply and subdued demand.

Investors are watching upcoming Chinese economic data, including the manufacturing PMI for June, which may signal further slowing in the industrial sector. Additionally, nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, along with potential shifts in US sanctions policy, remain key catalysts. A sustained demand slowdown could keep Iranian oil imports modest, limiting any bearish impact on global crude prices.