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The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Amid heightened volatility in global commodity supply chains, ING Economics has warned that the global aluminium market is set to face a substantial deficit of 3 million tonnes this year. According to reports, this projection remains firm despite the easing of geopolitical risks following a preliminary deal between the US and Iran. The bank noted that structural supply losses persist and are unlikely to be recovered quickly, keeping market fundamentals supportive of higher price levels.
This projected deficit coincides with mixed performance across major industry peers; Alcoa (AA) reported a net loss in Q1 2024 but maintained steady production guidance, while Rio Tinto reported a 3% year-on-year increase in aluminium production per market data. These figures underscore the ongoing constraints on global supply, particularly as environmental regulations and high energy costs continue to impact smelting operations across Europe and Asia.
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Sign InLooking ahead, traders are closely monitoring aluminium price levels as they react to inventory data from the London Metal Exchange (LME). Key catalysts include the Eurozone Economic Sentiment data released on June 16, 2026, which printed at 9.5, as European industrial health directly impacts demand. Additionally, the Japanese Balance of Trade data released on the same date serves as a critical indicator for assessing broader Asian demand for base metals.