Commerzbank Cuts Oil and Gas Forecasts Following Strait of Hormuz Deal

Key Facts

In a move reflecting easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Commerzbank has downwardly revised its forecasts for crude oil and European natural gas prices. This revision follows the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global trade. According to reports, the bank expects energy prices to remain elevated above pre-war levels through 2027, despite current downward pressure resulting from the anticipated resumption of shipping flows.

This revision coincides with relative market stabilization, as analysts view the agreement as a fundamental turning point in the supply-demand balance. In comparison to peers, Goldman Sachs has maintained its Brent price forecasts near the $80 per barrel mark, while market data shows European gas prices experienced sharp volatility prior to this announcement. Furthermore, API data from June 16, 2026, showed a crude stock change of -8.33 million barrels, indicating resilient demand despite the lowered price outlook.

Traders should monitor current price levels in light of these new forecasts, as energy instruments settled at mixed levels as of the June 19, 2026 close. Looking ahead, the market is awaiting official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration as a primary catalyst. Investors are also focusing on upcoming central bank commentary, such as speeches by ECB's Lagarde, to assess the impact of energy costs on global inflation trajectories.