Goldman Sachs: Hormuz Tanker Traffic May Never Fully Recover to Pre-War Levels

Key Facts

Amid structural shifts in global supply chains driven by geopolitical tensions, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may never fully return to pre-war levels. According to reports, the bank believes that the increasing reliance on alternative shipping routes has led to a permanent change in regional export logistics. Analysts expect oil flows to recover to only 13 million barrels per day by the end of July, representing just 70% of the volumes recorded prior to the crisis.

This shift occurs as regional producers seek to mitigate risks associated with maritime chokepoints, with market data indicating that rising insurance and freight costs have incentivized the use of pipelines and alternative ports. Compared to previous disruptions, energy experts suggest that the infrastructure activated over recent months could become a long-term strategic preference rather than a temporary fix, reducing the relative dominance of a waterway that historically handled nearly a fifth of global oil consumption.

Looking ahead, global markets are monitoring key economic data for demand signals, as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.1% on June 11, 2026, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. Investors should watch for upcoming International Energy Agency reports to assess the sustainability of these alternative routes and their impact on global supply balances as flows stabilize at lower historical thresholds.