Oil Stays Below $100 Despite Record Supply Disruption from Hormuz Closure

Key Facts

Three and a half months after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices continue to trade below the $100 per barrel mark despite estimates of 13 million barrels per day being removed from the market. According to reports, this represents the largest oil supply disruption in history, yet markets have absorbed the shock driven by hopes of an imminent diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran to resolve the crisis.

This price stability results from structural shifts in global trade, as the United States boosted its crude exports to record highs to offset the shortfall, while China slashed imports to multi-year lows. Compared to previous API data showing a sharp inventory draw of 9.119 million barrels on June 9, 2026, the surge in U.S. output and cooling Asian demand have significantly mitigated the physical deficit in global markets.

Traders should monitor current price levels closely as oil faces conflicting pressures between physical scarcity and diplomatic optimism. Looking at the economic calendar, weekly U.S. export reports and upcoming Chinese demand data will remain the primary price drivers, especially as the market awaits any official announcement regarding a U.S.-Iran deal that could reopen the strait and pivot market sentiment.