Oil Price Spike Warnings as Hormuz Supply Disruptions Hit 13M BPD

Key Facts

1Global oil supply of approximately 13 million bpd has been wiped off due to the closed Strait of Hormuz.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, acute concerns are emerging over a supply crisis that could disrupt global energy markets. According to reports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has wiped off approximately 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of global oil supply, placing global inventories under severe strain. Analysts suggest that oil futures markets are showing a significant disconnect from physical supply realities, as traders price in hopes of imminent peace deals while ignoring the massive physical deficit.

These developments coincide with a sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, which fell by 7.974 million barrels according to the EIA Weekly Petroleum Report on June 3, 2026, far exceeding the forecasted 4-million-barrel draw. Historically, a disruption of this magnitude surpasses previous production shocks; per market data, the persistence of this outage could drive prices toward unprecedented record levels within weeks as strategic reserves are depleted.

Traders should closely monitor official statements from Iranian and U.S. authorities regarding the reopening of the shipping lane, as uncertainty remains the primary driver of volatility. Looking ahead, the next weekly EIA report will be a critical catalyst in determining the pace of global inventory erosion. If the closure persists, markets may be forced to price in an immediate risk premium to bridge the gap between global demand and currently available supply.