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In a move reflecting Tehran's determination to restore its deterrent balance, Iranian forces have begun large-scale restoration of missile tunnels and defensive infrastructure damaged during recent military operations. Satellite imagery shows authorities repairing roads and filling craters at bases targeted by US and Israeli forces, attempting to reopen tunnels and prepare mobile launchers. These actions come amid diverging intelligence estimates, with President Trump stating Iran holds only 21% to 22% of its arsenal, while CIA estimates suggest Tehran retains approximately 70% of its missiles.
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Sign InThe speed of restoration efforts raises regional concerns regarding Iran's ability to reconstitute a missile threat in a short timeframe, especially as geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East. Per market data, these developments increase uncertainty that could impact energy prices and risk premiums in global markets. Compared to previous escalation cycles, military experts note that Iran's retention of 75% of its launchers, according to Washington Post reports, provides high operational flexibility despite damage to manufacturing centers.
Investors should monitor any military or diplomatic responses that could trigger a new round of escalation, potentially affecting risk sentiment. Looking at the economic calendar, traders await Fed Kashkari's speech on June 2, 2026, for signals on monetary policy amid current geopolitical conditions. Volatility levels remain prone to increase as Iranian military base activity continues to be monitored via satellite surveillance.