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Macro Economy•5 June 2026•

2 min read

US AI Investment Projected to Hit 2% of GDP by 2026, Rivaling Defense Spending

Key Facts

1AI investment in the U.S. is projected to hit 2% of GDP by 2026, approaching levels seen in national defense spending.

2Norway and Saudi Arabia are the next highest spenders, allocating 0.7% of their GDPs to AI this year.

3China's data center spending as a share of GDP sits at approximately 0.4%, trailing behind Malaysia and Sweden.

Amidst a global race for technological supremacy, digital infrastructure is witnessing an unprecedented surge in capital expenditure. According to reports from TS Lombard, AI investment in the United States is projected to reach 2% of GDP by 2026, approaching levels typically reserved for national defense spending. The data further highlights that Saudi Arabia and Norway are emerging as secondary leaders, allocating 0.7% of their respective GDPs to AI this year, while China's data center spending trails at approximately 0.4% of its GDP.

This projected spike in U.S. investment significantly outpaces other major economies, with the scale of data center development now exceeding that of Sweden and Malaysia. Contextualizing this within the broader macro environment, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded a reading of 54 as of June 1, 2026, beating the forecast of 53 (per market data). This strength in the industrial sector suggests a robust foundation for the massive infrastructure build-out required to sustain the AI boom.

Traders should monitor the sustainability of this Capex trend, particularly as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate stood at 3% as of June 1, 2026. Upcoming catalysts include speeches from Fed Chair Powell and other central bank officials, which will clarify the interest rate trajectory and financing costs for these large-scale projects. Additionally, manufacturing PMI data from China and capital expenditure figures from Japan will be critical in assessing the widening competitive gap in global AI infrastructure.