Gulf Tensions Restore Oil Risk Premium After Strikes in Kuwait and Oman

In a move reflecting the fragile geopolitical stability in the region, fresh strikes on infrastructure in Kuwait and Oman have undermined hopes for a de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran. According to reports, ICE Brent stabilized around the $95 per barrel mark as Oman's main port reportedly resumed operations. Most global crude benchmarks are now expected to post weekly gains ranging from 2% to 3% as a risk premium is priced back into the market.

These developments arrive at a sensitive time for global energy markets, with traders monitoring the potential impact on physical supplies from the Gulf. Compared to price action in the previous quarter, crude is showing higher sensitivity to geopolitical friction, especially as the optimism following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire fades. Per market data, the stabilization of prices above key psychological levels suggests investors are increasingly wary of threats to vital maritime corridors.

Looking ahead, traders are watching Brent crude levels near $95.00 (close June 5, 2026) as a pivotal pivot point for near-term direction. On the economic calendar, key catalysts include the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI due June 1 and a scheduled speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, both of which will be instrumental in shaping global demand expectations and US Dollar strength.