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Following weeks of anticipation in energy markets, the stalling of diplomatic paths has forced a reassessment of geopolitical risk premiums. Oil prices rose for a third consecutive day following the suspension of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, sparking fears of renewed hostilities in the Gulf region. According to reports, the collapse of the 'imminent deal' narrative has strengthened the US Dollar, which is now on the verge of breaking the 160 Yen threshold—a level that may trigger direct intervention from Japanese monetary authorities.
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Sign InThese movements come as major energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, Shell, and BP see increased interest from investors seeking hedges against geopolitical inflation. In comparison to peer performance, global energy equities recorded notable gains coinciding with a 2.8 million barrel decline in US API crude oil stocks per market data released on May 27. Previous reports also indicate that continued uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz is driving insurance and shipping costs higher, supporting an upward price structure.
Traders should closely monitor the USDJPY pair as it approaches historic levels, as any Bank of Japan intervention could lead to sharp volatility in currencies and Asian equities like SoftBank (9984.T). Looking at the economic calendar, the market awaits the EIA Weekly Petroleum Report (scheduled for May 28, 2026) for confirmation on domestic demand levels. The resistance level at 160 Yen per Dollar will remain the primary pivot for risk appetite in upcoming sessions.