Goldman Sachs Hikes Copper Forecast to $13,735 Amid HSBC 'Super-Squeeze' Warning

Key Facts

1HSBC analysts warned of a 'super-squeeze' in commodity markets due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and supply disruptions.

2Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per ton, citing global mine supply shortfalls.

3Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global supply.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions threatening global trade routes, HSBC analysts have warned of a 'super-squeeze' in commodity markets due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and resulting supply disruptions. Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per ton, citing a severe shortfall in global mine supply. The bank lowered its 2026 global production estimates by 350,000 tons, representing a deficit of approximately 1.5% of total global supply.

These revisions come as major mining operations face operational headwinds, with market data showing production constraints in key regions like the DRC and Indonesia. Compared to previous years, experts note that demand driven by AI infrastructure and the energy transition is depleting inventories that have already reached critical levels. Per market data, this projected deficit significantly exceeds gaps recorded in prior cycles, reinforcing a structural bullish case for industrial metals.

Traders should monitor copper spot levels on the LME, which reflect the current scarcity in immediate availability. Looking at the economic calendar, South Korean Business Confidence (actual 80) and Australian Inflation (actual 4.2% on May 27, 2026) serve as vital proxies for manufacturing demand in the APAC region. Additionally, upcoming speeches from Fed officials, such as Logan, will be scrutinized for clues on financing costs that impact the expense of holding physical commodity stockpiles.