Goldman Sachs Sees Elevated Fuel Margins Through 2026 on Hormuz Crisis

Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions reshaping global energy flows, Goldman Sachs has issued a forecast indicating that refined fuel margins will remain significantly elevated through 2026. This persistence is primarily driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have slashed global refined product exports by 4 million barrels per day. According to the bank, the crisis has tightened refined product markets more severely than crude oil, with diesel margins expected to exceed pre-war levels by $19 to $26 per barrel.

These projections arrive as major refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum face supply constraints, with previous industry reports highlighting that conflict-related refinery outages have notably curtailed global capacity. Per market data, the Q1 2024 earnings of top-tier refiners demonstrated resilient profitability despite crude price volatility, supporting the view of a structural supply deficit. Furthermore, increased shipping and insurance costs for alternative maritime routes are acting as a floor for these historically high margins.

Regarding market data, the API crude oil stock change showed a decrease of 2.8 million barrels (as of May 27, 2026), reinforcing the tight supply narrative. Traders are now looking ahead to the U.S. Core PCE Price Index release on May 28, 2026, for insights into inflation trends and their subsequent impact on fuel demand. Should geopolitical pressures persist, refining margins will likely remain the primary driver of energy sector profitability over the medium term.