Saudi Aramco Expected to Cut July Oil Prices for Asia Amid Weakening Demand

Key Facts

1Saudi Arabia is expected to cut the Official Selling Price (OSP) for Arab Light crude to Asia in July by $3 to $8 per barrel.

2The expected cut is driven by weakening demand and narrowing spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude.

In a move reflecting the cooling physical oil market in Asia, Saudi Arabia is expected to significantly reduce its Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for Arab Light crude for July loading. According to analyst reports, the anticipated cut ranges between $3 and $8 per barrel, driven by weakening regional demand and narrowing spot premiums for Middle Eastern grades. This adjustment serves as a critical signal from the world’s top exporter regarding the current softening of global crude benchmarks.

These expectations coincide with broader economic headwinds in the region, as recent Chinese trade data showed a 10.3% decline in year-to-date Foreign Direct Investment per market data, heightening concerns over demand sustainability in the world's largest oil importer. Compared to the previous quarter, energy experts note that declining refining margins in Singapore have pressured Asian refiners to seek more competitive pricing, justifying Aramco's pivot to maintain its market share against rival grades.

Regarding equity performance, Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) shares stood at 29.85 SAR at close 2026-05-29. Traders are now focusing on upcoming energy catalysts, including the official EIA inventory reports, following the API's report on May 27 which indicated a 2.8 million barrel draw in crude stocks. These data points, combined with any forthcoming OPEC+ policy signals, will be pivotal in determining price direction in the near term.