TD Cowen: US Clarity Act Crypto Bill Unlikely to Pass in 2026

Key Facts

Reflecting the growing complexity of digital asset regulation in Washington, TD Cowen analysts have downgraded the probability of the Clarity Act passing in 2026. The bank reported that a worsening political environment and a crowded Senate legislative agenda make it unlikely for the bill to reach a floor vote before the August recess or year-end. According to reports, increasing political friction is casting significant doubt on the ability of lawmakers to finalize this long-awaited regulatory framework.

This regulatory pessimism comes as sector leaders face mixed pressures, with market data showing continued volatility in crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy. Compared to previous quarters, experts suggest that the lack of legislative clarity may drive firms to seek more stable regulatory environments outside the U.S., especially as the SEC continues its "regulation by enforcement" approach in the absence of formal congressional action.

Traders should monitor key sector levels, with COIN trading at sensitive thresholds as of the May 26, 2026 close. Looking ahead, the FOMC minutes scheduled for release on May 20, 2026, will be a critical catalyst for broader risk sentiment, potentially impacting crypto-related stocks in the absence of near-term legislative progress for the Clarity Act.