The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions reshaping global energy flows, Australian wealth manager AMP has projected that global oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels this year. According to reports, the firm expects prices to remain structurally elevated throughout 2026, driven by a persistent risk premium. The outlook suggests that prices will hold their gains even if a diplomatic deal is reached between the U.S. and Iran, reflecting a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics.
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Sign InThese projections arrive as traders weigh slowing demand from China, where official data (May 18, 2026) showed fixed asset investment contracting by 1.6% and industrial production growing by only 4.1%, missing the 5.9% forecast. In terms of peer performance, Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) reported resilient earnings in the previous quarter despite market volatility, while Brent crude has stabilized above key support levels per market data. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have noted that tight global inventories continue to provide a floor for prices.
Traders should monitor Brent crude levels, which remain in a consolidation phase as of the close on May 24, 2026. Upcoming catalysts include Canadian inflation data on May 19, 2026, which could impact commodity risk appetite, and a scheduled speech by Fed Governor Waller later that day for clues on interest rate trajectory. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain the primary driver for any potential price breakouts above current resistance levels.
Update: Additional energy sector risks have emerged following warnings from Equinor regarding a potential critical shortfall in European gas stocks if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for 1-3 months. According to reports, Europe’s gas storage levels currently sit at 35-37%, significantly below the 50% seasonal norm, adding another layer of complexity to the global energy outlook.