Wedbush Analyst Sees 80% Probability of Tesla-SpaceX Merger to Consolidate Musk’s Empire

Key Facts

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has assigned an 80% probability to a potential merger between Tesla Inc. and SpaceX. According to reports, Ives believes Elon Musk’s corporate entities are heading toward a strategic combination to consolidate his business universe. The analyst suggests that such a move would streamline Musk's leadership and resources across his primary ventures.

These projections emerge as big-tech firms increasingly seek vertical integration to maintain competitive advantages. Tesla’s market capitalization remains a dominant force in the EV sector per market data. Comparatively, while peers like Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) face ongoing scaling challenges, analysts at Morgan Stanley have previously noted that SpaceX’s valuation could eventually surpass Tesla's, making a combined entity a formidable industrial powerhouse.

Tesla (TSLA) shares remained in focus at the close of May 20, 2026, as investors weigh the implications of this speculative mega-merger. Looking ahead, market participants are monitoring the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate scheduled for May 14, 2026, alongside multiple Federal Reserve speeches which may impact broader sentiment for high-growth technology equities.