UBS Raises Global Earnings Forecast to 20% Amid Record Equity Highs

Key Facts

UBS has significantly upgraded its earnings growth forecast for global equities from 12% to 20% for 2026. According to reports, the bank set a year-end 2026 target of 1,410 for the MSCI ACWI index, with further expansion to 1,470 projected by June 2027. This optimistic revision is attributed to a robust corporate earnings season and resilient economic fundamentals that have propelled global markets to all-time highs.

These projections emerge alongside mixed performance in major economies; per market data, Japan's GDP grew by 2.1% YoY (close May 18, 2026), beating the 1.7% forecast. Conversely, China's industrial production grew by 4.1%, missing the 5.9% estimate, highlighting a divergence in global recovery speeds. Nevertheless, analysts suggest that corporate profitability, particularly in tech and finance, remains the primary catalyst for the current bullish sentiment across Western exchanges.

Traders should monitor the MSCI ACWI levels as they approach these new benchmarks amid ongoing monetary policy uncertainty. According to the economic calendar, upcoming speeches from Fed officials Williams and Barr will be key catalysts for market direction. Future inflation data will also be critical in determining if corporate margins can indeed sustain the aggressive 20% growth trajectory envisioned by UBS through 2026.