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Macro Economy•18 May 2026•

1 min read

Yardeni Forecasts 5% Treasury Yield Peak, Citing Rare Buying Opportunity

Key Facts

1Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni expects U.S. Treasury yields to peak near 5% in the coming weeks.

2Yardeni views the potential yield peak as a rare opportunity to buy both stocks and bonds.

According to reports, Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni expects U.S. Treasury yields to peak near the 5% threshold in the coming weeks. Yardeni views this potential surge as a rare opportunity for investors to build positions in both equities and fixed-income instruments. The analysis suggests that reaching this level will likely trigger a favorable risk-reward setup as market volatility stabilizes following the peak.

This outlook emerges amid persistent inflationary pressures, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.8% annually in May 2026, exceeding the 3.7% forecast per market data. Core inflation also remained elevated at 2.8% year-over-year, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative. In comparison, German CPI data showed a 2.9% annual increase for the same period, highlighting global concerns over stabilizing price growth.

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Traders should monitor yield levels as they approach the 5% target, particularly following mixed economic signals such as U.S. Existing Home Sales, which stood at 4.02 million units (as of May 11, 2026). Looking ahead, upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Fed officials on the economic calendar will be critical catalysts that could determine if yields maintain their upward momentum or find the peak predicted by Yardeni.