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Trading desks at BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies generated up to $4.75 billion in additional profits during the first quarter, driven by market volatility stemming from the war in Iran. According to reports, these oil majors are expected to see earnings rise by between $3.3 billion and $4.75 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent supply disruptions created significant opportunities for sophisticated trading operations to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
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Sign InThese results highlight a significant outperformance by European firms over their US rivals in navigating energy price swings. Per market data, this windfall comes amid extreme global oil price fluctuations, aligning with Financial Times reports that energy giants are increasingly relying on their trading divisions to offset tightening refining margins. The ability to capture these gains underscores the strategic importance of integrated trading desks in volatile geopolitical environments.
Looking ahead, investors are monitoring the EIA Weekly Petroleum Report scheduled for release today (May 13, 2026) for insights into US inventory levels and price direction. Speeches from Fed officials Goolsbee and Hammack will also be critical for assessing how geopolitical tensions influence inflation and interest rate outlooks. Current volatility levels remain a primary catalyst to watch for the sustainability of these exceptional trading profits in upcoming quarters.