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CommoditiesMedium•1 May 2026•

1 min read

JPMorgan Forecasts Aluminum to Hit $4,000 Amid Severe Supply Deficit

Key Facts

1JPMorgan's head of metals research expects aluminum prices to move toward $4,000 per metric ton in the very near term.

2The aluminum market is facing a very large supply hole impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.

Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals research at JPMorgan, projects that aluminum prices are poised to surge toward $4,000 per metric ton in the near term. Speaking to Bloomberg Television, Shearer highlighted that the aluminum market is currently grappling with a very large supply hole. This significant deficit is being driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has severely impacted global supply chains and commodity availability. The analyst warned that geopolitical tensions are now a primary driver of pricing dynamics within the metals sector. According to JPMorgan, the combination of structural supply gaps and regional instability creates a strong bullish environment for the metal. Consequently, market participants are bracing for heightened volatility as the supply-demand imbalance intensifies.