U.S. Senate Expands Prediction Market Trading Ban to Staff as House Move Looms

Key Facts

The U.S. Senate has expanded its trading ban on prediction markets to include staff members, aiming to prevent the use of non-public information on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. This regulatory tightening occurs as Kalshi traders report a 50% dead heat in the odds for Senate control. Market volatility has surged recently, with Republican majority odds intensifying their decline in March 2026 due to the geopolitical fallout of the U.S.-Iran war. In response to the shifting landscape, Polymarket has partnered with Chainalysis to deploy advanced compliance tools while targeting a $15 billion valuation. These measures highlight a concerted effort by lawmakers to ensure market integrity amid significant global instability. The inclusion of staff in the ban addresses potential conflicts of interest as prediction markets become increasingly sensitive to legislative and military developments.

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