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Central BanksMedium•24 April 2026•

1 min read

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Odds Surge to 86% on Kalshi After DOJ Drops Powell Probe

Key Facts

1Bettors on Kalshi now see an 86% chance Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15.

2Odds jumped from 30% after the DOJ announced it was dropping a criminal inquiry into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair have surged to 86% for the period ending mid-May. This dramatic spike follows a previous standing of just 30%, marking a significant shift in market expectations. The rally in odds was triggered by the Department of Justice (DOJ) announcing it would drop a criminal inquiry involving current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The removal of this legal cloud over Powell appears to have cleared the path or accelerated the perceived timeline for a leadership transition. While these figures stem from betting markets rather than official government channels, they highlight intense speculation regarding the future of U.S. monetary policy. Market participants are now closely monitoring for any formal signals that could solidify Warsh’s potential ascension to the head of the central bank.