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Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, stated that the Middle East conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in oil history, driving Brent crude above $106 per barrel. In a major market response, U.S. oil and gas exports have surged to all-time record highs as the global market seeks alternatives to Gulf supplies. However, experts warn that logistical and structural obstacles may prevent this current export surge from becoming a permanent boost for the U.S. energy sector. While Baker Hughes expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed until late 2026, the IEA continues to project a permanent global shift toward renewables and nuclear energy. Despite a ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon, daily transits remain at critical lows, forcing a re-evaluation of fossil fuel reliance amid persistent geopolitical risks.
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