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ForexUpdated×7•Originally published 20 April 2026•Updated 22 April 2026•

1 min read

AUD/USD Rises on Extended Ceasefire and RBA Hike Expectations

Donald Trump against maps of the US and Iran, with oil barrels, pipelines, derricks, and upward financial charts amidst flames.

Key Facts

1The AUD/USD pair pared its Monday gap as market participants downplayed the risks of further military escalation from Iran.

2Risk sentiment stabilized following the initial reaction to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The AUD/USD pair climbed amid an extended ceasefire, bolstering global risk appetite and pushing the exchange rate toward the 0.7160 level. This upward momentum is supported by firming expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike in the near term. However, emerging risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have begun to act as a cap on further upside movement, tempering market optimism. Investors remain focused on the upcoming April 29 CPI data, which is expected to provide further justification for a hawkish policy shift. While domestic inflationary pressures support the Aussie, geopolitical friction points are now providing a significant headwind. Consequently, the currency's trajectory remains tied to the balance between hawkish RBA signals and regional stability.

about 1 month ago

Version History

Version 7about 1 month ago

What changed: Updated price level to 0.7160 and added Hormuz risks as a limiting factor for upside movement.

Version 6about 1 month ago

What changed: Updated the story to reflect AUD/USD gains instead of losses, incorporating the extended ceasefire and RBA rate hike expectations as new primary drivers.

Version 5about 1 month ago

What changed: Added specific technical support for AUD/JPY and identified the easing of the Strait blockade as a new catalyst for risk sentiment.

Version 4about 1 month ago

What changed: Updated the story to reflect the shift toward risk-on sentiment, specifically highlighting the rise in USD/JPY and the Yen's weakness as safe-haven demand eased following the cooling of Iran-related tensions.

Version 3about 1 month ago

What changed: The story was updated to specify that tensions involving Iran are the primary driver for safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Version 2about 1 month ago

What changed: Updated the story to incorporate broad US Dollar strength driven by market risk aversion as a primary factor weighing on the AUD/USD pair.

Version 1about 1 month ago

What changed: Added technical resistance at 0.7200, the 6.7% rebound in crude oil prices, and the April 29 CPI data as the next fundamental catalyst.