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GeopoliticsMedium•20 April 2026•

1 min read

Eurasia Group Sees 65% Chance for Cease-fire Amid Hormuz Closure

Donald Trump's face over an Iranian flag map, oil refineries, barrels, and a rising financial chart with flames.

Key Facts

1Eurasia Group estimates the probability of the cease-fire holding at approximately 65%.

2The Strait of Hormuz has been closed again, threatening the stability of ongoing negotiations.

Eurasia Group estimates the probability of the current cease-fire holding at approximately 65%, reflecting cautious optimism amid heightened geopolitical tensions. This assessment follows the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, which poses a direct threat to the stability of ongoing negotiations. Analysts warn that the risk of a total collapse in talks remains present due to the unpredictable positioning of both involved parties. The closure has reintroduced significant volatility into global markets, reversing previous trends where investors had begun pricing in a successful peace resolution. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation as it introduces fresh supply-side risks for Crude Oil and energy-related instruments. Consequently, the uncertainty is expected to drive safe-haven demand for Gold (XAU/USD) while keeping energy markets on edge.