US-Iran Ceasefire Triggers 14% Oil Plunge and Global Market Rally

Key Facts

1Washington and Tehran struck a last-minute, two-week ceasefire provided the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened.

2Brent futures dropped 14% and 10-year German Bund yields fell 18bp following the ceasefire news.

3ASML expects Q1 revenue growth of 14–15% driven by strong AI chip demand despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Washington and Tehran have reached a surprise two-week ceasefire agreement, contingent on the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. The news triggered a massive shock in energy markets, with Brent crude futures plunging 14% while 10-year German Bund yields dropped by 18 basis points. This de-escalation followed intense Chinese diplomatic pressure and US military threats aimed at averting a total energy collapse. Amidst this volatility, semiconductor giant ASML projected Q1 revenue growth of 14-15%, bolstered by sustained demand for AI-related chips. While equity futures rallied on the news, the short duration of the truce maintains high binary risks and extreme uncertainty for global investors.