ING Forecasts USD/TRY Stability as Carry Trade Interest Returns

Key Facts

ING analysts anticipate a stable trajectory for the USD/TRY pair supported by carry trade activity, even as the pair trades near new record highs. The market is currently operating under a 'managed-depreciation' regime, with active CBRT interventions defending the Lira from steep slides. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) interest rate decision scheduled for April 22. While the significant interest rate differential continues to incentivize Lira-denominated positions, the sustainability of these trades depends on the exchange rate remaining within a predictable range. The central bank's efforts remain centered on ensuring exchange rate stability as a core part of its disinflation strategy. Consequently, anticipated capital inflows are expected to stabilize the USD/TRY pair despite the current upward pressure.