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Macro EconomyHigh Impact•15 April 2026•

1 min read

IMF Warns of Global Recession Risk Over Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure

Key Facts

1The IMF warned of a potential world recession if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

2IEA estimates suggest it would take 60 to 150 days to restore normal oil flows even if the Strait reopened immediately.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning regarding a potential global recession if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, were to be closed. According to IEA estimates, restoring normal oil flows could take anywhere from 60 to 150 days, even if the strait were reopened immediately following a disruption. In response to these growing energy shock risks, Spain has already begun releasing portions of its strategic oil reserves to stabilize domestic supply. Analysts at Rabobank suggest that financial markets are currently underpricing these severe downside risks while governments implement demand-side subsidies that could further fuel inflation. A closure of the strait would likely trigger a massive spike in crude oil prices, significantly impacting global equity indices and energy-dependent currencies.