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Macro EconomyUpdated×6•Originally published 16 April 2026•Updated 17 April 2026•

1 min read

Oil Prices Rise as Markets Await US-Iran Ceasefire Developments

Emmanuel Macron's face centered between cracked Visa and Mastercard cards, with Euro and Ethereum symbols, bank buildings, and digital payment cards.

Key Facts

1The ECB is signaling that a rate hike in April looks unlikely.

2Longer yields are increasing (bear steepening) as risk sentiment recovers and primary market activity picks up.

3Central bank pricing remains less hawkish compared to the start of the week.

about 2 months ago

Version History

Version 6about 2 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include a more hawkish outlook on interest rates, highlighting persistent inflation risks and the potential for higher long-term yields.

Version 5about 2 months ago

What changed: The focus shifted toward Middle East geopolitical tensions, specifically the looming expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, leading to a headline change and the integration of Brent crude price action.

Version 4about 2 months ago

What changed: Updated the timing of expected ECB rate hikes to June and July instead of April, and included the projected 2.50% deposit rate target.

Version 3about 2 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include VRP ETF performance and the impact of shifting rate cut expectations on the attractiveness of variable-rate fixed-income instruments.

Version 2about 2 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include record U.S. Treasury trading volumes, record primary dealer holdings, and the impact of new SLR standards on market liquidity.

Version 1about 2 months ago

What changed: Updated the narrative to include the impact of lower oil prices on Fed and BoE expectations, and added context regarding the 2s5s yield curve flattening and its growth implications.

Energy markets are seeing a significant shift as Brent crude prices rise ahead of next Tuesday's deadline for the current US-Iran ceasefire. Back-channel diplomacy remains active between Washington and Tehran to secure a truce extension, while rates markets remain cautious about pricing out future hikes due to persistent inflation concerns. This hawkish sentiment persists as European and US bond markets adjust to the possibility that longer-term rates could still move higher absent a significant increase in economic growth fears. Experts warn that market positioning remains sensitive, balancing geopolitical risks against the reality of sustained inflationary pressures. Investors are now closely monitoring how these factors will influence upcoming central bank policy decisions and global yield curves.