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CryptoUpdated×5•Originally published 16 April 2026•Updated 17 April 2026•

1 min read

Iran Mandates Bitcoin for Hormuz Strait Tolls as $1M Price Predictions Resurface

Golden Bitcoin coins and wallets in front of the US Capitol building and American flag, with an upward trend graph.

Key Facts

1Bitcoin has gained 12% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, outperforming gold by 22 percentage points.

2Experts argue Bitcoin's performance is driven by its role as a neutral settlement layer and an alternative to weaponized financial rails.

Momentum for Bitcoin as a sovereign asset is accelerating following Iran's mandate for Bitcoin-only transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to an 11.75% price surge. Adding to the geopolitical narrative, Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's price is driven by global liquidity rather than interest rates, suggesting that rate hikes may not negatively impact the asset. Hayes analyzed four potential outcomes for Bitcoin amid the Iran conflict, focusing on monetary expansion as the primary catalyst for growth. This aligns with Forbes reports pushing for a $100,000 price target and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s view that Bitcoin could eclipse gold's market cap. These developments mark a transition from speculative trading to Bitcoin becoming a fundamental layer of international trade and a hedge against monetary debasement.

about 2 months ago

Version History

Version 5about 2 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include Arthur Hayes' analysis on Bitcoin's resilience to interest rate hikes and the impact of global liquidity amid geopolitical conflicts.

Version 4about 2 months ago

What changed: Added new data quantifying an 11.75% Bitcoin price surge linked to global payment network disruptions and Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Version 3about 2 months ago

What changed: Updated the story to include Forbes' $100,000 price target and the specific identification of oil tankers as the vessels subject to the Bitcoin toll mandate.

Version 2about 2 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include Bitwise's analysis on Bitcoin's market cap relative to gold, the $1 million price projection, and retail sentiment data from Argentina via Coinbase.

Version 1about 2 months ago

What changed: Updated the narrative to reflect Bitcoin's shift from a passive hedge to a mandated settlement currency for oil transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.