Global Trade Growth Forecasts Slashed to 2% Amid Rising Recession Risks

Global trade growth expectations have been significantly downgraded to a range of 2% to 5%, a sharp drop from the previously anticipated 10%. According to Allianz Trade, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is eroding corporate confidence and driving up the costs of critical inputs like energy and metals. Approximately 65% of exporters now identify supply chain disruptions as their primary concern, highlighting the fragility of international logistics. In a downside scenario where these disruptions persist, the Eurozone's economic growth could stagnate at just 0.2%. This shift indicates that trade growth is becoming increasingly price-driven rather than volume-based, adding to global inflationary pressures. The combination of slowing growth and high inflation creates a challenging environment for equities and the Euro, while potentially boosting safe-haven assets.